Wednesday May 16, 2012
Fears the Greece will leave the eurozone has sparked a record number of bank withdraws, which could lead to a $1 billion bank run, according to an LA Times report. Central Bank President Karolos Papoulias also warned of a "great fear that could develop into a panic", if political leaders didn't take decisive action to stem the crisis.
Concerns have mounted throughout the eurozone that a Greek exit from the monetary union and default on its debt could lead to renewed troubles in Portugal and Ireland. These two countries are also highly indebted and rely on foreign loans, while they are also much larger, which means their failure could cascade into a far worse crisis.
Monday May 14, 2012
Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) party suffered a crushing defeat on Sunday in an election in Germany's most populous state, according to a Reuters report. The win was chalked up to the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens, who have a combined 51% share of the votes that was enough to give them a slight majority ahead of the national elections.
The move adds to the political tide against bailouts and austerity, after Greek and French elections also yielded increasingly socialist victories. As a result, the once-long-shot possibility of Greece leaving the eurozone now appears more and more inevitable. In fact, a Swedish Riksbank representative said that Europe's central bankers are already discussing the possibility.
What does that mean for the eurozone and investors? Experts remain divided on the aftermath of a Greek exit, but nearly everyone is concerned about the implications for larger economies like Spain, if the default and departure take place.
Friday May 11, 2012
China's industrial output slowed in April to its lowest level since May 2009, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. The figure rose just 9.3% in April, while retail sales slowed to a 14.1% rise, which is the lowest level in 14 months. Investors are concerned that these slowdowns could add to the global economic turmoil.
The slower growth rates could, however, make fiscal easing more likely, especially given the slowdown in consumer inflation. All eyes are on Premier Wen Jiabao who may reverse many of his prior policies reining in property and consumer prices, which has been at least partially responsible for the country's slowdown.
Thursday May 10, 2012
Emerging markets, such as the BRICs, have traditionally been seen as strong investments. But the recently slowdown in emerging markets could change some perceptions. The causes of this slowdown range from reduced demand for commodities from China, hurting exporters like Brazil, to domestic budget deficits that are hurting India's ability to grow.
Brazil has cut its interest rates several times after its gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed from 7.5% in 2010 to just 2.7% last year. Similarly, India's central bankers have loosened lending requirements to try and stimulate their slowing economy. China has already been in the headlines and Russia has also seen its growth slow in recent quarters.
Given the focus on the eurozone, many of these problems have gone unreported in traditional financial media. But this slowdown should be a wakeup call for investors with exposure to the BRICs and other emerging markets around the world.